The roads of Kolkata are witnessing a change in colours of celebration these days. The usual red gulal is slowly being replaced by the mixture of green, white and saffron. On November 10, with the announcement of by-election results, ecstatic supporters of the Congress-Trinmool Congress (TMC) alliance flooded the roads of Kolkata and their slogans praising Mamata Banerjee threaten to shatter the windows of Writers Building, the seat of West Bengal state government.

The Congress-TMC alliance swept the by-elections by wining eight out of ten assembly seats. The ruling Left Front could win only one seat of Goalpokhar – a traditional congress stronghold – where the Forward Bloc candidate defeated the Congress by a margin of over 20,000 votes. One seat was won by an independent. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) emerged as the biggest loser in these by-elections.

The CPM contested in five constituencies. It not only lost all five but also failed to retain the two seats it held previously. The red party suffered the major blow when TMC grabbed the Belgachia East–constituency of former Transport minister Late Subhas Chakraborti, which he had never lost since 1977 – from them. The TMC candidate Sujit Bose won this seat by a huge margin of 28,360, defeating CPM’s Ramala Chakraborti,  widow of the former minister.

Mamata Banerjee can now start dreaming about 2011 state assembly election results as the TMC has triumphed with a 100% victory record in these by-polls. The party fielded a total of seven candidates, with all of them emerging victorious. The party not only managed to destroy the red citadel of Belgachia East, but was also successful in gaining entry in North Bengal. Here, the TMC candidate Khageswar Ray made his way to the State assembly by defeating CPM’s Dhanapati Ray with a margin of 15,029 votes. The move to attract young voters towards the party by fielding young candidates did not work for the CPM. This time the party fielded a fresh, new and young candidate from Alipore, a traditional winning spot for the TMC. 30 year old Kaustav Chaterjee couldn’t improve things for the CPM, and his party lost by a margin of 27,555 votes.

The Left Front was the incumbent in three constituencies before the by poll and it suffered a loss of two seats, both of them belonging to to CPM. The other Left Front partners, also failed to shine. Communist Party of India (CPI) was contesting two seats, while Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) campaigned for one. Except for Forward Bloc’s lone seat, all were thrashed by the Congress–TMC alliance.

Despite an unprecedented appeal from the veteran Marxist leader Jyoti Basu to the Congress to vote in favour of the Left Front, the voters seem to have chosen the alliance over the Left Front.

This is an alarming situation for the state government. The CPM has quashed all rumours about an early state election, but the situation in the state seems to be slipping out of their hands.

After an extended wait of 15 days, Maharashtra has finally seen its new Chief Minister.  Mr. Ashok Chavan of Indian National Congress will be sworn in as the new Chief Minister of the State; while Mr. Chhagan Bhujabal of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) will take oath as the new Deputy CM.

Chhagan Bhujbal Source: Google photos

Ashok Chavan Source: Google photos

A few may describe this interlude – of the last 15 days – as one of the worst displays of greed, power and political manipulation that the public has witnessed in recent times. Despite a clear majority, both Congress and NCP could not reach a consensus about ministerial posts and the entire state had to wait for 15 days for its new government to assume office. Negotiations between both parties over the two week period could not reach an agreement. Each party wanted certain economically beneficial ministries for itself, resulting in an impasse.

As per the election results, Congress won 82 seats while NCP has won 62 in the 288-member assembly. The people of Maharashtra clearly voted in favour of the Cong-NCP alliance, as they had in the 2004 elections also. According to NCP leader Ajit Pawar, “After the 2004 elections, even though NCP had 71 seats compared to Congress’s 59, it agreed to accept the post of deputy chief minister and allowed Congress to retain the chief minister’s post.” Therefore, NCP demanded a change in the pattern asking for restoration of the portfolio sharing formula of 1999.

However, Congress was in no mood to retreat. Congress leaders completely refused to follow the 1999 pattern whereas nothing else was acceptable to NCP. This drama continued for 15 days. Governor of Maharashtra, S.C. Jamir had to call both Ashok Chavan and Chhagan Bhujabal to break the deadlock. The situation worsened and at one point, NCP declared that it will support the Congress government from outside.

According to the 1999 pattern, the Congress will get the CM’s post, while NCP will get the Deputy CM’s post along with key portfolios including Home, Finance, Power and Public Works. But since the Congress had garnered more number of MLAs this time than NCP, Congress wasn’t too happy with the idea of using the 1999 formula. But NCP had the last laugh, as the Congress had to give up a few important portfolios such as Home and Power. As a result,  Congressmen are not at all happy with the outcome, which they believe is heavily tilted in favour of NCP.

The opposition in the State was silent throughout. They didn’t even bother to condemn the delay in government formation. The already paralyzed Shiv Sena carried a few editorials in its mouthpiece Samna about the elections, but there was nothing criticizing the government. On the other hand, the Shiv Sena mouthpiece chose to carp on marathi manus for voting in favour of Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). MNS was largely responsible for eating into Shiv Sena’s vote share which led to Congress victory in a number of constituencies.  Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) sees no future for itself in Maharashtra. Its top leader Gopinath Munde has openly said that “two fighting brothers (Raj and Uddhav) caused us (the BJP) defeat” in this election.  

Raj Thackrey Source: Google photos

MNS has emerged as a new force in the state as a result of this election. The charisma of Raj Thackeray and his emotional rhetoric about marathi manus and Maharashtra helped MNS to garner 12 MLAs in its first election. The much publicised Third Front (led by Left and Republican parties), who offered the great promise of changing the political vista in Maharashtra, could not make much difference and hardly reached double figures.

With such a disorientated opposition, the Congress-NCP alliance has no one to fear. People also voted for them despite constant failures in the fields of agriculture, power and employment over the last five years.

After the drama which lasted for 15 days, the State has a new government. The people have voted for this government and it is government’s responsibility to fulfill the people’s mandate and work efficiently. Because if they don’t, this might be the final term for Mr. CM and Mr. Deputy CM!!!

Since 1976, West Bengal has remained a loyal supporter of India’s mainstream Left forces. The ruling Left Front government in West Bengal, which claims to be the sole representative of India’s peasant and working classes, showed its loyalty towards farmers by implementing extensive land reforms in the 80s. The initiatives taken by the State government did help them to win the confidence of farmers and their votes as well. That resulted in 35 years of uninterrupted Left Front rule in the State. But the scenario started changing from 2007, when the State government came up with the plan to set up a Chemical Hub in Nandigram and an auto factory in Singur, by acquiring farm lands.

Source:Google photos

The opposition in the state found what they wanted, and so -allegedly – did the then united Maoists. The issue of land grabbing was raised by the Trinmool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee, who joined the anti-SEZ campaign with the call of ma, mati and manush. The Maoists saw this as an opportunity to infiltrate the zone of conflict. It was a golden chance for them to spread their message of armed struggle against the system, in an area which was blocked by local Adivasis to bar the entry of the state administration. The situation worsened when 14 people died in police firing. Eventually the government had to withdraw its decision of setting up a Chemical Hub in Nandigram. The same story was repeated in Singur, where Ratan Tata wanted to set up a Nano car factory, his dream project.

The story does not end there. In recent times West Bengal has lost a number of projects due to constant interventions from the opposition led by Mamata Banerjee. The total investment lost by the State in recent years amounts to around Rs. 41,100 crores.

Source: Google photos

Meanwhile, the Left Front government in the State was losing its claim to being the lone flag bearer of farmers’ interests. The State government claimed that people in those areas were in favour of the projects, but constant threats by the Maoists and opposition parties had forced them to resist. But this claim was shattered when the Nandigram by-election result came out in January 2009. TMC won the seat with a handsome majority defeating Communist Party of India’s (CPI) candidate by 39,551 votes.  This trend continued in the Panchayat elections. The Congress – TMC alliance defeated the Left Front in several constituencies which were supposed to be strongholds of the Left Front. The overwhelming majority of the Left Front in Panchayats all over the State was disrupted in 2008. Rural Bengal,  traditional vote bank of the Left Front, decided to vote for the opposition. That was a big blow to the ruling coalition, the first of many that the Left Front had to suffer later on.

During the run-up to Lok Sabha elections 2009, the Left Front initiated the Third Front, which projected itself as an alternative to the Congress –led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) –led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The Third Front attracted a number of alliance partners from various states like Jayalalitha from Tamil Nadu and Naveen Patnaik from Orissa. Former Prime Minister H.D. Devegowda was also part of this Third Front.

The Left Front, mainly the Communist Party of India (Marxist), represented the most visible face of this Front. Despite a sizable number of allies, the success of the Third Front was largely dependent on the Left’s performance in the elections. CPI (M) was banking on West Bengal and Kerala to repeat the 2004 Lok Sabha election’s performance. And that’s where they misjudged the voters of West Bengal.

Congress-TMC alliance not only destroyed traditional Left bastions in the state but also fractured the prospects of the Third Front. The Left Front was routed in West Bengal.  TMC chief Mamata Banerjee spearheaded the anti- State government campaign, on the issues of land grabbing, farmers’ issues, and uncontrolled industrialisation. Ironically, the success of Congress-TMC alliance was based on the issues which were traditionally taken up by the Left.

The CPI (M) biggies like Mohammad Salim and Laxman Seth were defeated in the election. TMC for the first time since its formation saw such an unprecedented victory. As the Third Front experiment went in vain with the UPA capturing power yet again and that too with the help of Mamata Banerjee, the Left Front government started facing more and more difficulties.

The claims made by TMC chief suddenly became more visible than ever. The Maoists all of a sudden found West Bengal as their new target. A party like CPI (M) which was well known for its work at the grassroots found itself being deserted by the very same masses. And in the middle of all this turmoil, the Lalgarh incident shocked the country. The entire Lalgarh block was captured by Maoists and they forbade the entry of State machinery inside. The entire episode extended the State government’s misery. The increase in number of attacks by the Maoists is turning out to be a real pain in the back for the State government. The Maoists are particularly targeting CPI (M) offices and the party’s local leaders. Around 103 CPI (M) members have been killed by Maoists in last 2 months alone. And the total death toll has risen to 123.

The allegation of being deserted by the people of West Bengal is haunting the government. The Congress-TMC alliance is eyeing the 2011 State assembly elections to defeat the Left Front and to prevent them from forming the ninth successive government in the state. Each and every election between now and 2011 is a test for both the ruling party and the opposition. TMC’s slogan of ma, mati and manush is giving a tough fight to the Left’s People’s Democratic Revolution.

By-elections for 10 assembly seats will take place on November 7^. They are of enormous significance, not only for the State’s political future but also for the Left’s future in the State. The Left Front government has been criticised widely in last 2-3 years for adopting the same neo-liberal policies of which they were (and still are) stubborn opponents. The Left, and especially Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, has a point to prove. The industrialisation process started by Buddhadeb hasn’t received a warm welcome in the State. The question whether the Left will be able to hold its ground or will the Congress-TMC alliance succeed in breaching the red bastion once again remains unanswered today. November 7 will reveal the answers, which are sure to influence the political future of the State.

(To be continued)

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